All through the U.S., diesel provides stay tight; the East Coast particularly has been pressed to keep tanks fully stocked. Based mostly on knowledge from the Power Info Administration, U.S. distillate shares, which embrace diesel, are a minimum of 28 million barrels beneath the five-year common. The East Coast accounts for greater than half that deficit.

A few of the provide points return to pre-Covid 19 occasions, together with a June 2019 fireplace that took out a key East Coast refinery. The Philadelphia Power Options refinery had offered about 30% to 35% of diesel to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast markets. The everlasting lack of that refinery has made the East Coast depending on provide from a pipeline to the Gulf Coast and abroad imports, in addition to native refineries.

Just a few extra occasions on the horizon are prone to hold costs for refined merchandise like gasoline, diesel and jet gas at comparatively excessive ranges by means of the second quarter.

The primary is the U.S. refining upkeep season.

That is anticipated to be a yr of hefty upkeep as a result of refineries deferred essential work throughout 2020 and 2021 because of Covid-19. Many restricted the motion of outdoor upkeep contractors on their websites, and in 2022 upkeep work was delay as corporations sought to shore up deteriorating revenue margins.

However refineries can’t postpone upkeep ceaselessly, and the invoice is coming due when it comes to prices and down time on the services.

The Phillips 66 Bayway Refinery in Linden, N.J., is scheduled to start essential work on Feb. 2 that will have an effect on output. The refinery is a vital supplier of New York Mercantile Trade ultralow sulfur diesel, or NYMEX ULSD, and what is called RBOB, or gasoline blendstock earlier than ethanol is added.

Any issues in restarting the power might push diesel and gasoline costs greater as soon as upkeep is full.

The second occasion is the European Union’s restrictions on Russian refined products scheduled to start Feb. 5. Europe has been weaning itself off Russian crude oil and pure gasoline, however changing Russian diesel could show trickier. World markets could really feel the affect as Russia tries to seek out new clients.

The sanctions on Russian merchandise imply Europe’s diesel imports will probably be masking longer distances on oceangoing tankers, tying up capability and sure elevating delivery prices.

Costs for diesel have been comparatively steady in January because of a light winter within the Northern Hemisphere, save for a couple of blasts of Arctic climate. However these patterns are forecast to alter in February, with temperatures within the Northeast anticipated to fall to below-average ranges, including to demand for heating oil.

The NYMEX ULSD futures market continues to be pricing in a near-term, tightly-supplied market by means of what is called backwardation. That is the place present costs are greater than ahead deferred costs. For the time being, ULSD futures are buying and selling at their highest ranges since earlier than Thanksgiving.

At the moment, diesel costs on the retail degree within the U.S. were in the $5.25-5.30 a gallon vary. Based mostly on the newest U.S. common worth of about $4.60 a gallon, a run to greater than $5 shouldn’t be dominated out within the near-term. By the tip of January, retail diesel costs ought to be approaching $4.75 a gallon.

Regardless of persevering with provide pressures, nevertheless, the steep highs of 2022 are prone to keep within the report books and never be exceeded this yr.

Denton Cinquegrana is chief oil analyst on the Oil Worth Info Service. OPIS is owned by Dow Jones, which additionally owns The Wall Avenue Journal.