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How much do R$ 10,000 earn in savings and the CDB with the Selic stagnant at 13.75%? Check simulation

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As in Selic maintained at 13.75% per annum for the fifth consecutive meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank, this Wednesday (22), how are the yields of the more traditional fixed income investments?

O InfoMoney did the math to estimate the return on an investment of R$ 10 thousand, for one year, in savings and investments that yield 100% and 120% of the CDI rate – the reference index for fixed income investments.

In the fortnight between February 28th and March 13th, it was possible to find CDBs maturing in 12 months offering a maximum yield of 121% of the CDIaccording to a survey carried out by Quantum Finance for the InfoMoney.

Read too:

How to invest with Selic still at 13.75%? Inflation papers stand out and floating rates are worth in the short term

Check out the simulation below:


In savings, meager returns and below inflation

While experts identify good investment opportunities in government bonds, CDBs and private credit papers due to the taxa Selic at the level it is at, what remained buried in the list of financial applications was savings.

With the Selic at 13.75% per annum, the passbook delivers a return of 8.48% per annum.

Since 2012, whenever the basic interest rate exceeds 8.5% per year, the return on savings becomes fixed, at 0.5% per month – or 6.17% per year – plus the variation of the TR (Interest Rate). Reference). Since Selic last advanced beyond that level in December 2021, this is how its return is calculated.

The simulations by Camilla Dolle, head of fixed income research at XP, for the InfoMoney indicate that the return on the passbook remains below current inflation. In practice, the investor continues to lose money by leaving the funds invested in it.


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In the best scenario, with the Selic rate at 13.75% per annum, an investment of BRL 10,000 in savings would yield BRL 848 in one year. The calculations consider an average TR of 0.18% per month.

Another detail is that while the Selic rate is above 8.5% per year, the remuneration of 0.5% per month on savings remains at a standstill, while the return on other post-fixed investments follows the Selic increases – when they occur.


In CDBs, possibility of gain remains

If the investor allocated the same amount – BRL 10,000 – to a fixed income product with a return of 100% of the CDI, such as a CDB, he would have a return of 11.01% in one year, already considering the discount of 17.5 % of Income Tax.

The simulation also shows that, if the promised profitability were higher, such as 120% of the CDI, the yield would reach 13.34% per year.

In practice, the CDB of 100% of the CDI would deliver to investors the equivalent of R$1,100.77 in income at the end of one year, while that of 120% of the CDI would provide a return of R$1,334.03 in the same period.

It means that even though they are not exempt from taxation, like savings, CDBs available in financial institutions can yield more than the bankbook.

It is possible to find securities with returns in this range – 100% or 120% of the CDI – on investment platforms. It is necessary, however, to pay attention to some details. CDBs with better profitability usually do not have daily liquidity, that is, they do not allow the resources to be redeemed at any time – and, yes, only on maturity.

The most attractive returns are also usually offered by institutions with higher credit risk. Thus, it is important to consider the credit rating of the institution issuing the desired security before investing.

Advantages and disadvantages

Many investors keep funds invested in savings attracted by the Income Tax exemption and by seeing the account as a supposedly risk-free investment.

From the risk point of view, savings deposits are exposed to the same as a CDB: the credit risk (possibility of default) of the bank where they were made.

The IR exemption is a benefit of the passbook, but given its remuneration format, it is necessary to consider whether the profitability actually pays off.

Bearing in mind that both CDBs and savings are covered by the Credit Guarantee Fund (FGC)a kind of “insurance” that returns investors up to R$ 250,000 if the issuing institution presents problems, such as an intervention by the Central Bank.


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